Fuel crisis a narrow political strait for Govt to cross

2026-03-28 - 17:03

Comment: Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis succeeded in their surprise stand-up on Friday in shocking the nation into understanding the fuel crisis could get very bad. They did it too well, in fact. For the past week, Willis and Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones have been trying to reel back in some of the panic the Government unleashed. Jones has been at pains to stress that fuel supply remains secure. Willis, at the start of Friday’s announcement of an updated fuel security plan, made clear: “There is no immediate cause for alarm”. The shock and awe last week followed by this week’s more measured message highlights the delicate dance the Government must undertake as the fuel crisis unfolds. As I wrote last week, the start of the war in the Middle East marked a rough week for the Government, politically. Luxon’s leadership was in doubt as he flubbed answers on Iran policy, but the bigger looming threat was a spike in fuel prices and an associated surge in inflation dampening the country’s nascent economic recovery. However, there was a political silver lining as well. If Luxon and Willis could demonstrate leadership in a crisis, perhaps they could reap the political advantages enjoyed by other crisis leaders – most notably Jacinda Ardern. Doing so, however, means there must be a crisis. It’s no good for the Government if things just cost a lot but there’s no greater sense of alarm. Particularly because ministers have made clear they won’t be doing anything to ease those costs for the vast majority of Kiwis. Even the targeted relief package announced Tuesday is tailored only to low-income families with children who are not on a benefit. But over-egging a crisis which may not eventuate carries its own risks too. Even if fuel supply disruption emerges in the coming weeks, sparking panic buying today will only worsen the situation. Hence the walkbacks this past week. That leaves the Government walking a very narrow path. It must demonstrate it is leading well in a crisis without talking one into being. And the more alarmist the rhetoric, the greater the calls for more serious government intervention – something ministers say is not currently warranted and which they are ideologically loath to do. In other words, the political silver linings may still be there, but they are very difficult to get to. It’s possible they could be fool’s gold after all. Moreover, while Luxon and Willis fronted the crisis response last week, keeping the political benefit ringfenced to the National Party, Jones has become a more visible presence in the past seven days. He accompanied the duo to Monday’s post-Cabinet press conference and stood beside Willis on Friday as she announced the fuel security plan. Arguably, it is Luxon who has been sidelined on the response. Although he announced the tax relief package alongside Willis on Tuesday, he received almost no questions. He didn’t even show up for the reveal of the four-phase fuel security plan, instead heading to Christchurch to tour the new stadium there. If there is political advantage to be reaped, Luxon will need to show up to gather it. While Luxon may trust Willis to handle the crisis well, New Zealanders have an expectation that the Prime Minister fronts in a real crisis. It was his appearance alongside Willis at the end of last week that galvanised such a strong change in the feeling of urgency: that this was more than just a ministerial-level problem – the PM himself was involved. Luxon’s subsequent absence sends mixed signals to the public. Is this a crisis, or isn’t it? If it is, where’s the Prime Minister? And if not, what’s all the fuss? That’s yet one more part of the balance the Government must strike in these uncertain days.