Keeping our head down, vs poking the bear

2026-02-02 - 16:09

New Zealand has been a beneficiary of the international rules-based order for decades – trade disputes, action on serious issues, being heard on the world stage; there was a world body to give us a hand sorting stuff out. While there have been inconsistencies, hypocrisy from superpowers, and the system hasn’t been perfect, it has, generally, worked for us. But Russia and America between them have shaken up the system, and in a remarkable speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney laid it all out. “I thought this might be the most important political speech on geopolitics for many a long year,” says Tim Groser, a former diplomat: once New Zealand’s chief trade negotiator; ambassador, including to the United States and the World Trade Organization; and a National government trade minister. He says the key message of the speech was to acknowledge the reality that we are seeing a rupture of the rules-based system. “It’s not just the United States. It is also the invasion back in 2014 of Crimea by Russia, to break the most important norm of