Māori seats referendum a Treaty Principles-sized headache for Luxon

2026-02-12 - 16:10

Comment: Christopher Luxon is clear about the priorities of his Government and his party: “What we’re really focused on is fixing the basics and building the future, at the moment.” That’s National’s campaign slogan and it’s how he responded to a question on Thursday about a potential referendum to abolish the Māori electorates. Asked again, he said it wasn’t something the caucus had had time to consider, before reiterating the slogan. This isn’t Luxon dodging the question. A referendum on Māori seats really isn’t a priority. He wants to be talking about economic policy, building infrastructure, reducing hospital waitlists. Instead, he’s answering questions about a policy from a coalition partner he doesn’t want setting the agenda. After all, Luxon came into office two years ago hoping to focus on the same issues, but from his first press conference as Prime Minister onwards has had to spend far too much time batting away questions about the Treaty Principles Bill, Treaty clause review and other policies criticised as anti-Māori. Relatively few of the headline policies that have attracted ire from Māori are National Party initiatives. But Luxon has still found himself answering for them all the same, as the head of the coalition Government and the default face of it. When New Zealand First announced on Thursday it would campaign on a referendum to abolish the Māori seats, Luxon will have read the announcement with a sinking feeling of déjà vu. Having caved in coalition negotiations on the issue of the Treaty Principles Bill, the Prime Minister is now staring down the barrel of a long nine months of being dogged by questions about how he will respond. If he rejects the proposal – or attempts to clumsily adopt some sort of strategic ambiguity – he will have to continually reiterate that position, urged on to stronger and stronger language that he won’t ink a coalition deal that authorises a referendum. Indeed, after months of gleefully attacking Labour by reference to the most extreme policies of the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, Luxon will find himself in Chris Hipkins’ shoes. It’s not hard to imagine the attack lines Hipkins will trot out: “He said last time that he’d ruled out the Treaty Principles Bill, but then he agreed to it in negotiations. How do you know he won’t pull a repeat?” Perhaps the only thing worse than suffering a campaign dogged by unending questions about the Māori seats would be to actually agree to the policy, however. Here, Luxon would be assuming responsibility for it. He wouldn’t be able to denounce it as “New Zealand First’s referendum” as he condemned “Act’s Treaty Principles Bill” at Waitangi last week. Instead, he’d have to own the policy and defend it. There are certainly voters National could win over by taking this tack. The problem is that they’re voters who would otherwise tick the Act or NZ First box. When the polls are as close as they are, Luxon needs to be winning voters off Labour, not his coalition partners. Anything that scares off median voters must be very carefully considered. Nor is the proposed referendum the only such policy National’s coalition partners will debut. At Waitangi, David Seymour said he would take a new policy to the election to attempt to achieve the aims of the Treaty Principles Bill. The Prime Minister declared that dead on arrival, but then softened his language, saying he hadn’t even seen the substance of the proposal and couldn’t say much before he had. Luxon hoped the end of his first term in Government would mark the end of hīkoi before Parliament and haka in the House. Instead, he faces the prospect not just of a gruelling campaign tarred by culture war Treaty policy but, if he’s able to form a Government after the election, a second term of trying to keep on-message. “Fixing the basics, building the future, scrapping the Māori seats” just doesn’t have the same ring to it.