Oil! War! Madness! What would Rod do?

2026-03-18 - 16:03

Comment: Trying to interpret the geopolitical dramas across the globe is all the more difficult without Rod Oram around. Like Pink Floyd (sort of) sang: Rod, I wish you were here. It’s two years since Rod died in a cycling accident, robbing New Zealand of a whip-smart observer of current affairs, and his friends and family of a generous, compassionate man. Watching the daily chaos unfold makes me wonder if he’s better off singing waiata on a long, white cloud. It would be more upbeat. But we’re not better off. Rod never shirked his responsibility to chide and inspire. In his absence, it might be good to conjure up some Rodisms to explain what’s going on – and reignite some hope. What would Rod do? Well, he’d start with a chirpy “hello!” Then he’d bounce slightly on his toes, pump the air in rolled-up sleeves and say “there’s never been a better time to act!” We know this because he told us in 2022. Back then, the Ukraine war was playing havoc with European oil and gas markets and Rod’s February 24 column was headlined, “A clean break from exposure to fossil fuel wars. Russia is playing a geopolitical game in oil and gas – so New Zealand’s answer must be a clean tech revolution.” Roof-top solar, smart metering, EVs, batteries, hydro storage, solar buybacks, industry incentives – all fairly obvious then and bleeding obvious now – are the right response to an oil crisis, he said. It’s simple economics. “Over the past decade, the costs of solar power and wind have fallen by 90 and 60 percent respectively. “Meanwhile, fossil fuel prices exhibit no learning curve. After all, fossil fuels are a commodity not a technology. Their prices fluctuate over time and have recently set new highs because superior extraction technologies are having to fight against the continuous depletion and burning of the most accessible reserves.” He wasn’t naïve about the challenges but encouraged us to see a longer horizon: “Of course, geopolitics will play an increasing role in the supply of some crucial minerals for the clean tech revolution. But once countries have built their renewable electricity generation and storage capacity they will gain a lot more energy security and resilience.” Rod was relentlessly buoyant about New Zealand’s prospects as a regenerative, nature-based economy. But he was angry about intransigence. In 2021 he wrote presciently about the political forces resisting the clean transition: “While many key players in business and politics are on to these vital tasks, others are still in denial. “For example, NZ First has killed the government’s programme to help the transition to a low emissions light vehicle fleet; and the National Party and the politicised Federated Farmers rubbished the Primary Sector’s strategy announced this week, even though the strategy is supported by all the sector’s associations and main co-ops and corporates. “Those politicians are just like the smelter and refinery — legacy assets from the Think Big era which are no longer fit for purpose. The economic case for moving on is crystal clear. So too is the political.” He’d be spitting mad now. Finishing the job Even in his anger, Rod was unfailingly polite and optimistic. I was surprised to find him unusually downbeat after the first stage of his epic Beijing-to-Birmingham cycle tour in 2023. Covid had forced him to start with the middle section, Kazakhstan to Instanbul, but he was determined to complete the remaining legs in coming years. The tour was quintessential Rod. Some 15,000 kilometres across Asia and Europe by bike, in his 70s, just so this “vast sweep of 2,000 years of economic history could unfold vividly and rapidly for me over nine weeks”. (2021) To me, the trip was mental and better experienced as a Youtube download. But that’s not why Rod was downbeat. He was shortly off to COP28 in Dubai where the fossil fuel lobby was expected to play a heavy hand (it did) and the New Zealand delegation was expected to underwhelm with its reopening of gas exploration and walk-backs on methane. (New Zealand won the first Fossil of the Day award). Resistance to a change so necessary and so exciting was baffling to Rod. He believed that a cleaner, greener, more equitable economy was within reach. The lack of ambition frustrated him deeply. “We exemplify the laggards, given our Labour government’s ‘bonfire of policies’ and National’s piecemeal pandering to vested interests. Both see the climate crisis as a burden to be tackled one way or another, sooner or more likely later. Neither sees climate solutions as great drivers of economic and social progress.” (2021) But just like fans rage at the All Blacks’ on-field performance, it was because he loved this country, his and Lynn’s adopted home. He had high hopes that the spirit of innovation and bravery that brought us all as immigrants could overcome the urge to look back. “...mould-breakers, disruptors and innovators are vital [and] incumbent companies and existing technologies have crucial roles too. But only if they bravely help to make our future rather than obstinately defend their past. “This is the vastly positive but deeply disruptive global context in which we’ll be setting New Zealand’s energy future.” [2022] If Rod was here now he’d tell us face forward, not back. And not to waste a good crisis. If all else fails And if that spirit of innovation fails, then he’d ask us to embrace an intergenerational view. In the last blog from Instanbul, Rod found comfort in the ebb and flow of history. The planet, if not the people on it, will survive the actions of stupid and evil men. “I hope that camaraderie is apparent in the photo at the top of this last post. It was taken at Sile, the Black Sea town where we started the 62nd and last day of our ride from Almaty to Istanbul. Rod Oram, centre, was one of ‘a pretty diverse bunch of 22 individuals from 10 countries, plus an equally motley crew of 10’ who cycled 5145km from Almaty to Istanbul. This photo was taken at Sile on the Black Sea, at the start of their last day. “Along the way, we had journeyed through a cavalcade of history and cultures, in which empires rose, and empires fell for good and ill. “We saw people persevering and progressing, through adversities and opportunities, in their own ways big and small. I realised I too can still rise to challenges, still learn, still contribute in my own infinitesimally small ways. “Above all, I came to believe the Living Earth can teach us all how to create a better future for it and for all of humanity.”