Seymour’s balancing Act as party seeks second term in power

2026-02-15 - 23:49

Comment: Opening his State of the Nation speech on Sunday, David Seymour thanked the party faithful who had given up their Valentine’s Day weekend for a tub-thumping political address. “To my partner, Alex, you being here today must be a sign of true love,” Seymour quipped to his fiancée. Act has stirred strong passions in the electorate this term, it’s true – but that depth of feeling (on both ends of the love-hate spectrum) can make it difficult to form an objective view of the party’s performance and its prospects at the November 7 election. Public polls this year have the party sitting at an average of 7.45 percent, marginally down on the 8.64 percent it received in 2023. Is that a sign voters have grown weary of Seymour, after years of headlines and protests related to his Treaty principles bill, Regulatory Standards Act and cost-cutting fervour – or is it a good sign to be so close to the last election result, given the usual fate of minor parties that find themselves in coalition? Seymour’s speech was a balance between two competing emotions. New Zealand needed an “accurate and uplifting” story about national identity, he declared, based around our pioneering spirit and status as a nation of settlers rather than “amplifying the dark side of our culture”. Yet he also declared himself “frightened” by the prospect of a left-wing government. The first social media post after Seymour’s address pictured a shadowy Green figure looming behind Labour Leader Chris Hipkins with the declaration: “We must keep them out.” Praise for the accomplishments of Act ministers and MPs mixed with a warning of “flashing lights on the dashboard”, and the risk that rising debt levels could eventually overwhelm the country. “There is no law saying New Zealand cannot face a South American debt spiral. We are on a collision course unless we find the courage to front up and change,” Seymour warned. That may be a difficult message to sell to the public, already jaded by a stalling economy and the impact of previous coalition cuts. That might explain why the centrepiece of the Act leader’s address was a more popular (verging on populist) policy, cutting back the number of ministers and ministries gumming up the machinery of government. “Reducing the number of ministers will save money, but it will also change the point of being a minister – no more vanity portfolios designed to appeal to a group of people,” Seymour said as he set out a proposal to have no more than 20 ministers (all in Cabinet) and a maximum of 30 government departments. “One of the reasons why we’re doing overseas investment consents now in 28 days instead of 71 is that they’re not spending maybe 30 days going between different ministers’ offices,” he told journalists afterwards, making the case for further change. Winning such concessions from National in coalition negotiations may be more difficult – particularly given it is the larger party that would likely have to surrender more ministerial positions. Yet even being in a position to make such demands is a major improvement from Act’s diminished state from the mid-2000s to late 2010s, when it essentially existed as a party in name only. What will November 7 bring? It is hard to say, particularly as the other coalition partner, New Zealand First, appears increasingly disruptive – but Seymour’s knack for inciting strong emotions should ensure Act retains its relevance. This analysis was first published in the Newsroom Pro subscriber newsletter. If you’re interested in seeing more content like this, you can subscribe here.