Treasury distances itself from Budget lock-up guest list amid ‘reputational risk’

2026-01-28 - 16:04

The Government’s lead economic adviser is passing responsibility for invites to fiscal briefings back to Nicola Willis in the wake of “significant negative commentary” around Budget 2025. A report prepared for the Minister of Finance by Treasury officials and obtained by Newsroom under the Official Information Act, says decision-making on lock-up attendance for the December 2025 Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update and the Budget 2026 lock-up sits with Willis. It also sounds the alarm over “heightened reputational risk” to both Treasury and the minister relating to attendance, after backlash over exclusions to the 2025 event. Emails between Treasury staff and the minister’s office highlighted that the department had been directed to omit any reference to the minister regarding attendance approval. They also showed Treasury officials developed a more restrictive approach to lock-up attendance approvals following a conversation with the minister’s press secretaries. In the latest Treasury report, officials recommend the minister return to the approach previously taken by her office prior to Budget 2024, with restrictions determined by capacity rather than categorisation and who is deemed by government officials to need embargoed access to the information. Responding to questions, a spokesperson for Willis confirms she has accepted the Treasury’s recommendation. In a detail that further positions the Budget as a political communication event, the Treasury document confirms it is maintaining hosting responsibilities for the third discussed event – the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update. The Treasury admits the Budget is now a political “communication” event (hosted by the minister), but the PREFU is a neutral technical event. Restricted briefings for economic updates, known as a lock-up, enable media and economists to read key documents for two hours before they are made public. The event also entails speeches on the content by the finance minister and the Treasury secretary. Economists from organisations such as unions have historically attended the briefings, as well as those from bigger institutions like banks. But in December 2024 ahead of the half year update and the Budget 2025, economists from Business New Zealand, the New Zealand Initiative, the Taxpayers’ Union and the Council of Trade Unions had their applications declined on the basis that they didn’t meet eligibility criteria. The Council of Trade Union’s Craig Renney, who is the Labour Party candidate in Wellington Bays for the upcoming General Election, has been an emphatic critic of the Government and its economic policy. Treasury changed its tune at the last minute and granted the former three organisations access, with the Council of Trade Unions given the okay last after Eric Crampton of the New Zealand Initiative (and Newsroom columnist) said he would only accept his own invitation if it were extended to the council as well. A 2024 email seen by Newsroom showed officials’ concern about the optics of the exclusions. “My concern is that otherwise when Mr Rennie [sic] and the CTU kick up a fuss, we’re unnecessarily risking Treasury’s reputation on issues that will likely look politically motivated on the part of the MoF (Ministry of Finance) office,” an adviser wrote. Another email thread referred to a request from the minister’s office that wording of a registration of interest did not include any hosting references to the minister. The Treasury had been tasked with deciding how attendees were categorised and so was the key decision-maker, the ministry worker reasoned. A Treasury staffer mulling the implications wrote: “The key considerations are whether we are comfortable with the minister’s office viewing final attendance decisions as the role [of] Treasury, and if so, whether we are comfortable with the categorisation we have applied.” The latest document, written in October 2025 and titled ‘Treasury Report: Restricted briefing attendance’, sought from Nicola Willis agreement to the approach for three upcoming lock-ups – both the half-year update and Budget 2026, as well as a Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update. It notes a progressively restrictive approach to attendance. “At the HYEFU [2024] there were further limits on attendance with the intent of restricting access to those with a need for embargoed access to the information (rather than simply rationing space). “At Budget 2025 the ‘HYEFU approach’ was initially implemented. This led to 60 interested attendees being declined, and significant negative commentary. The Treasury also received OIA requests on the process of determining attendance and legal correspondence.” A section titled ‘risks’ reads: “Following a high level of media interest in lock-up attendance at Budget 2025, and the influence this commentary had on the final lock-up attendance there is a heightened reputational risk to both the Treasury and the Minister of Finance, if we continue to use the restrictive criteria and don’t clarify who has the final say on attendance.” Jordan Williams of the Taxpayers’ Union, one of those initially banned from the Treasury events in 2024 and 2025, says transparency should be the foremost priority and the more people in the room able to scrutinise the documents, the better. “It’s obvious why the Treasury want to distance themselves after being dragged into what became a petty political intervention, scrambling to find means to justify the minister’s desire to exclude Craig Renney. The 2024 emails between Treasury staffers outlined concern over the prospect of excluding Renney on the basis that he had previously broken lock-up rules. Concern over this rationale mentioned the matter had been dealt with by the minister’s office. “The fact that Treasury is now explicitly recommending the Minister take ‘final say’ suggests they’ve recognised that last year’s approach compromised their own institutional independence; this is Treasury essentially saying ‘W e don’t want to be your political enforcers’,” Williams adds. Eric Crampton of the New Zealand Initiative says the guidelines noted in the Treasury document are better than those actioned in 2025. “There is always potential for tension in how Treasury interprets the rules if MoF has strong preferences about who attends, and if Treasury does not wish to be offside with its minister. But I expect that nobody will want to repeat last year’s messiness.” A statement from Andrew Rutledge, Treasury’s assistant secretary of budget and fiscal strategy, says in the past, it has not been formally agreed who would have final say over lock-up attendance. “Clearly outlining and agreeing the guidelines for lock-up attendance, as well as who makes the final decision on lock-up attendance, between the Treasury and the Minister of Finance’s office helps to provide clarity for those who register their interest to attend Budget events. “The Treasury is committed to political neutrality at all times, not just ahead of a general election,” he says.