US and Israel’s special relationship tested as public opinion shifts

2026-03-26 - 16:13

The United States was one of the first countries to recognise an independent Israel in 1948, and since then their ties have deepened. But in the past two years, two conflicts – in Gaza and in Iran, into which America has poured billions in military aid into Israel – have had a sizeable effect on the way young Americans in particular are seeing that relationship. They’ve seen horrific images on social media of victims in Gaza, an attack on Iran that has been deemed illegal under international rule and is causing huge economic hardship and disruption. US President Donald Trump seems to be looking for an offramp from the Iran conflict but Israel differs on the next steps; they’re no longer quite as in lockstep as they used to be. Today on The Detail we speak to two foreign affairs experts, Otago University’s professor Robert Patman and geo-political analyst Dr Geoffrey Miller, about the special relationship between the two nations, and why it might be changing. “The United States sees Israel as one of the few democracies in the Middle East region,” says Patman. “It sees Israel as a very close strategic partner, and that closeness is symbolised by the fact that the United States provides about $4 billion in military assistance every year to Israel. “Interestingly in terms of diplomatic goals they have drifted a bit, but with the advent of the second Trump administration the relationship has got even closer. And Mr Trump and Mr [Benjamin] Netanyahu seem to have an exceptionally close relationship.” A crucial factor in explaining the closeness between the two countries is the Israeli penetration of domestic politics in the US. “AIPAC – the American-Israeli support lobby – [is] a very powerful, influential group in United States politics. The Israeli lobby funds both major parties, Democrats and Republicans, and that’s been a factor going back to the 70s. “Israel I think by the 70s realised it had to become a player in American domestic politics, and it has successfully done so. “Although interestingly since the Gaza crisis, AIPAC has become, at least when it comes to funding Democratic candidates for office, much less visible because there is certainly a change of opinion within the United States amongst young people, particularly in progressive politics. Sometimes closeness to AIPAC is seen as a disadvantage, particularly with the ICJ [International Court of Justice] indicating that war crimes were committed in Israel’s reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.” Patman believes it was a catalyst in the transformation of many young people’s views about Israel. Another issue for Americans is their president’s inability to be clear about the reasons for invading Iran, including that it was to stop a threat, when last June after another skirmish in Iran, Trump said the threat had been obliterated. Dr Geoffrey Miller says some of the connection is based on religion. “The idea of Christian Zionsim, the belief that the return of Jews to the Holy Land is a Biblical pre-requisite for the second coming,” he says. “The Republican Party [in the US] relies very heavily on Evangelical voters, and particularly from the 1970s onwards there was a real push from Evangelicals to demand greater support for Israel as part of Republican candidates’ platforms. “It’s just been a truism that if you want to be successful in politics and you are on the Republican side you have to support Israel very, very, strongly. Even on the Democratic side that has largely become a truism.” He says Israel, for its part, sees the United States as the only true friend it can rely on. “European countries place far more conditions on support than the United States does. When it comes to weaponry, for example, many European countries wound down sales to Israel after October 7; limited supplies and so forth. The United States did not.” Check out how to listen to and follow The Detail here. You can also stay up-to-date by liking us on Facebook or following us on Twitter.